This book breaks new ground by drawing attention to certain kinds of biases that permeate many parts of science. Data are constrained not only by limitations of measurement instruments but also by the precondition that there is some suitably positioned observer there to 'have' the data (and to build the instruments). This simple truth turns out to have wide-ranging implications for fields as diverse as cosmology, evolution theory, imperfect recall problems in game theory, theology, traffic analysis, the foundations of thermodynamics and the interpretation of quantum mechanics.
Yet, disturbing paradoxes lie in ambush. The infamous Doomsday argument is one of these, but it is merely the tip of an iceberg. By means of thought experiments and careful philosophical investigation, the book develops a precise theory, cast in a Bayesian framework, of how to reason when our evidence has an indexical component or we suspect that observation selection effects have biased our data, the theory caters to legitimate scientific needs while showing how to resolve the philosophical paradoxes. It offers new conceptual and methodological tools for thinking about the large-scale structure of the world and the place of observers within it.

Anthropic Bias explores how to reason when you suspect that your evidence is biased by "observation selection effects"--that is, evidence that has been filtered by the precondition that there be some suitably positioned observer to "have" the evidence. This conundrum--sometimes alluded to as "the anthropic principle," "self-locating belief," or "indexical information"--turns out to be a surprisingly perplexing and intellectually stimulating challenge, one abounding with important implications for many areas in science and philosophy. There are the philosophical thought experiments and paradoxes: the Doomsday Argument; Sleeping Beauty; the Presumptuous Philosopher; Adam & Eve; the Absent-Minded Driver; the Shooting Room. And there are the applications in contemporary science: cosmology ("How many universes are there?", "Why does the universe appear fine-tuned for life?"); evolutionary theory ("How improbable was the evolution of intelligent life on our planet?"); the problem of time's arrow ("Can it be given a thermodynamic explanation?"); quantum physics ("How can the many-worlds theory be tested?"); game-theory problems with imperfect recall ("How to model them?"); even traffic analysis ("Why is the 'next lane' faster?"). Anthropic Bias argues that the same principles are at work across all these domains. And it offers a synthesis: a mathematically explicit theory of observation selection effects that attempts to meet scientific needs while steering clear of philosophical paradox.

The human brain has some capabilities that the brains of other animals lack. It is to these distinctive capabilities that our species owes its dominant position. Other animals have stronger muscles or sharper claws, but we have cleverer brains. If machine brains one day come to surpass human brains in general intelligence, then this new superintelligence could become very powerful. As the fate of the gorillas now depends more on us humans than on the gorillas themselves, so the fate of our species then would come to depend on the actions of the machine superintelligence. But we have one advantage: we get to make the first move. Will it be possible to construct a seed AI or otherwise to engineer initial conditions so as to make an intelligence explosion survivable? How could one achieve a controlled detonation? To get closer to an answer to this question, we must make our way through a fascinating landscape of topics and considerations. Read the book and learn about oracles, genies, singletons; about boxing methods, tripwires, and mind crime; about humanity's cosmic endowment and differential technological development; indirect normativity, instrumental convergence, whole brain emulation and technology couplings; Malthusian economics and dystopian evolution; artificial intelligence, and biological cognitive enhancement, and collective intelligence. This profoundly ambitious and original book picks its way carefully through a vast tract of forbiddingly difficult intellectual terrain. Yet the writing is so lucid that it somehow makes it all seem easy. After an utterly engrossing journey that takes us to the frontiers of thinking about the human condition and the future of intelligent life, we find in Nick Bostrom's work nothing less than a reconceptualization of the essential task of our time.

The human brain has some capabilities that the brains of other animals lack. It is to these distinctive capabilities that our species owes its dominant position. Other animals have stronger muscles or sharper claws, but we have cleverer brains. If machine brains one day come to surpass human brains in general intelligence, then this new superintelligence could become very powerful. As the fate of the gorillas now depends more on us humans than on the gorillas themselves, so the fate of our species then would come to depend on the actions of the machine superintelligence. But we have one advantage: we get to make the first move. Will it be possible to construct a seed AI or otherwise to engineer initial conditions so as to make an intelligence explosion survivable? How could one achieve a controlled detonation? To get closer to an answer to this question, we must make our way through a fascinating landscape of topics and considerations. Read the book and learn about oracles, genies, singletons; about boxing methods, tripwires, and mind crime; about humanity's cosmic endowment and differential technological development; indirect normativity, instrumental convergence, whole brain emulation and technology couplings; Malthusian economics and dystopian evolution; artificial intelligence, and biological cognitive enhancement, and collective intelligence. This profoundly ambitious and original book picks its way carefully through a vast tract of forbiddingly difficult intellectual terrain. Yet the writing is so lucid that it somehow makes it all seem easy. After an utterly engrossing journey that takes us to the frontiers of thinking about the human condition and the future of intelligent life, we find in Nick Bostrom's work nothing less than a reconceptualization of the essential task of our time.

This 2005 edition (ISBN 0-9743472-4-8 in the Cultural Classics Series by Ria University Press) contains an exact replica copy of the complete first edition of Robert C. W. Ettinger's 1972 cultural classic, MAN INTO SUPERMAN. Additional (2005) materials include three paper contributions: (1) "A Short History of Transhumanist Thought" (By Nick Bostrom, Ph.D.); (2) "A Brief History of Modern Transhumanism" (By R. Michael Perry, Ph.D.); and, (3) "My Dog Is A Very Good Dog -- Or -- The Unprecedented Urgency Of New Research Priorities To Dismantle Doomsday And Cultivate Transhumanity" (By Charles Tandy, Ph.D.). >>> In the 1960s Ettinger founded the cryonics (cryonic hibernation) movement and authored THE PROSPECT OF IMMORTALITY. In the 1970s Ettinger helped initiate the transhumanist revolution with his MAN INTO SUPERMAN. Ettinger sees "discontinuity in history, with mortality and humanity on one side -- on the other immortality and transhumanity." >>> Cryonic hibernation (experimental long-term suspended animation) of humans may provide a "door into summer" unlike any season previously known. Such patients (individuals and families in cryonic hibernation) may yet experience the transhuman condition. Ettinger argues for his belief in "the possibility of limitless life for our generation." We should become aware of the incorrect, distorted, and oversimplified ideas presented in the popular media about cryonics and transhumanism. Ettinger believes that the cool logic and scientific evidence he presents should lead us to forget the horror movies and urban legends and embrace great expectations. >>> An abstract of Dr. Bostrom's paper follows: Transhumanism in Western history (partial listing oftopics): Our ambivalent quest to transcend natural limits; Rational humanism as a root of transhumanism; Ben Franklin as favoring suspended animation; Darwin and possibility that most evolution remains in future; Frankenstein (1818) and science fiction; Racism and totalitarianism in the 20th century; Julian Huxley (1927) uses term "transhumanism"; Artificial Intelligence; The Singularity; Molecular Nanotechnology; Uploading of Minds; Robert Ettinger (1964) advocates experimental long-term suspended animation now (cryonics and the likelihood of transmortality and transhumanity); F. M. Esfandiary and UpWingers; Max More and the Extropy Institute; Nick Bostrom and the World Transhumanist Association; James Hughes and the new 21st century politics of biotechnology. >>> An abstract of Dr. Perry's paper follows: In 1964, Ettinger advocated freezing the newly deceased for possible future reanimation. But the transhumanist camp that emerged is not limited to cryonicists. Transhumanist thought includes (to cite only a few): Alan Harrington (1969) THE IMMORTALIST (Scientific conquest of death); F. M. Esfandiary (1970) OPTIMISM ONE (UpWing, instead of Left-Middle-Right, philosophy); Eric Drexler (1986) ENGINES OF CREATION (Molecular nanotechnology); Damien Broderick (1997) THE SPIKE (During the 21st century we will become a new family of life-forms); According to Frank Tipler (1994) THE PHYSICS OF IMMORTALITY and R. Michael Perry (2000) FOREVER FOR ALL, the more distant future may include scientific resurrection of all the dead. >>> An abstract of Dr. Tandy's paper follows: Particular cultural traditions have informed each civilization's felt educational needs to become "us" or "human" (instead ofbarbarian) or to become "educated" or "transhuman" (instead of merely human). The twentieth century surprised many of us with its world wars and doomsday weapons (WMDs). If we survive all doomsday dangers over the next few years and decades and centuries, then our future as humans or transhumans may be longer -- much longer -- than the mere 10,000 years of past civilizational existence. Our pasts are short and almost non-existent compared to the potential reality of a very long future. This paper explores the educational implications of such a complex reality.

Volume Three in the Death And Anti-Death Series By Ria University Press is in honor of Albert Einstein and Soren Kierkegaard. The chapters do not necessarily mention Einstein or Kierkegaard. The 17 chapters (by professional philosophers and other professional scholars) are directed to issues related to death, life extension, and anti-death. Most of the 400-plus pages consists of scholarship unique to this volume. Includes Index. ---CHAPTER ONE: Death And Life Support Systems: A Novel Cultural Exploration by Giorgio Baruchello. ---CHAPTER TWO: Recent Developments In The Ethics, Science, And Politics Of Life-Extension by Nick Bostrom. ---CHAPTER THREE: Life, And The Concept Of A Relativistic Field In Kant by Douglas Burnham. ---CHAPTER FOUR: Towards An Ethics Of Ontogeny by Anthony S. Dawber. ---CHAPTER FIVE: An Easy Death by Mikhail Epstein. ---CHAPTER SIX: Fear Of Death And Muddled Thinking -- It Is So Much Worse Than You Think by Robin Hanson. ---CHAPTER SEVEN: The Illusiveness Of Immortality by James J. Hughes. ---CHAPTER EIGHT: A Question Of Endings by Lawrence Kimmel. ---CHAPTER NINE: What Is Left After Death? by Jack Lee. ---CHAPTER TEN: Life Extension And Pleasure: Can The Prolongation Of (Self) Consciousness Deliver Greater Pleasure Or Happiness? by Carol O'Brien. ---CHAPTER ELEVEN: Raising The Dead Scientifically: Fedorov's Project In A Modern Form by R. Michael Perry. ---CHAPTER TWELVE: The Emulation Argument: A Modification Of Bostrom's Simulation Argument by Charles Tandy. ---CHAPTER THIRTEEN: Managing The Consequences Of Rapid Social Change by Natasha Vita-More. ---CHAPTER FOURTEEN: Eros And Thanatos -- The Establishment Of Individuality by Werner J. Wagner. ---CHAPTERFIFTEEN: Universal Superlongevity: Is It Inevitable And Is It Good? by Mark Walker. ---CHAPTER SIXTEEN: Return To A Pristine Ecosphere Via Molecular Nanotechnology by Sinclair T. Wang. ---CHAPTER SEVENTEEN: Fedorov's Legacy: The Cosmist View Of Man's Role In The Universe by George M. Young.

ABOUT THE DEATH AND ANTI-DEATH SERIES: The Death And Anti-Death Series By Ria University Press discusses issues and controversies related to death, life extension, and anti-death. A variety of differing points of view are presented and argued. The following volumes in the series have been published: _________________________________________________ Death And Anti-Death, Volume 1: One Hundred Years After N. F. Fedorov (1829-1903) (Edited By Charles Tandy, Ph.D.) -- ISBN 0-9743472-0-5 is available from most bookstores -- The anthology discusses a number of interdisciplinary cultural, psychological, metaphysical, and moral issues and controversies related to death, life extension, and anti-death. This first volume in the series is in honor of the 19th century Russian philosopher N. F. Fedorov. (Some of the contributions are about Fedorov; most are not.) Each of the 17 chapters includes a selected or short bibliography. The anthology also contains an Introduction and an Index -- as well as an Abstracts section that serves as an extended table of contents. A variety of differing points of view are presented and argued. Most of the 400-plus pages consists of contributions unique to this volume. Although of interest to the general reader, the anthology functions well as a textbook for university courses in culture studies, death-related controversies, ethics, futuristics, humanities, interdisciplinary studies, life extension issues, metaphysics, and psychology. _________________________________________________ Death And Anti-Death, Volume 2: Two Hundred Years After Kant, Fifty Years After Turing (Edited By Charles Tandy, Ph.D.) -- ISBN 0-9743472-2-1 is available from most bookstores -- Thefollowing contributions are original to this volume of the Death And Anti-Death Series By Ria University Press: > Is The Universe Immortal?: Is Cosmic Evolution Never-Ending? (By Charles Tandy) > Death As Metaphor (By Lawrence Kimmel) > Fantasies Of Immortality (By Werner J. Wagner) > What Will The Immortals Eat? (By George M. Young) > Cultural Death Understanding (By Anthony S. Dawber) > Death And Immortality: Plato, Aristotle, Aquinas And Descartes On The Soul (By Carol O'Brien) > Against The Immortality Of The Soul (By Matt McCormick) > Why Death Is (Probably) Bad For You: A Common Sense Approach (By R.C.W. Ettinger) > Resurrecting Kant's Postulate Of Immortality (By Scott R. Stroud) > Immortality and Finitude: Kant's Moral Argument Reconsidered (By Douglas Burnham) > Death, Harm, And The Deprivation Theory (By Jack Li) > To Be Or Not To Be: The Zombie In The Computer (By R.C.W. Ettinger) > The Future Of Human Evolution (By Nick Bostrom) > Earthlings Get Off Your Ass Now!: Becoming Person, Learning Community (By Charles Tandy) ABOUT THE EDITOR: Dr. Charles Tandy received his Ph.D. in Philosophy of Education from the University of Missouri at Columbia (USA) before becoming a Visiting Scholar in the Philosophy Department at Stanford University (USA). Presently Dr. Tandy is Associate Professor of Humanities, and Director of the Center for Interdisciplinary Philosophic Studies, at Fooyin University (Taiwan). Dr. Tandy is author or editor of numerous publications, including The Philosophy Of Robert Ettinger (2002); and, Death And Anti-Death, Volume 1 (2003). For more information, see .

A global catastrophic risk is one with the potential to wreak death and destruction on a global scale. In human history, wars and plagues have done so on more than one occasion, and misguided ideologies and totalitarian regimes have darkened an entire era or a region. Advances in technology are adding dangers of a new kind. It could happen again.
In Global Catastrophic Risks 25 leading experts look at the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including asteroid impacts, gamma-ray bursts, Earth-based natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse. The book also addresses over-arching issues - policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes.
This is invaluable reading for anyone interested in the big issues of our time; for students focusing on science, society, technology, and public policy; and for academics, policy-makers, and professionals working in these acutely important fields.

To what extent should we use technology to try to make better human beings? Because of the remarkable advances in biomedical science, we must now find an answer to this question.
Human enhancement aims to increase human capacities above normal levels. Many forms of human enhancement are already in use. Many students and academics take cognition enhancing drugs to get a competitive edge. Some top athletes boost their performance with legal and illegal substances. Many an office worker begins each day with a dose of caffeine. This is only the beginning. As science and technology advance further, it will become increasingly possible to enhance basic human capacities to increase or modulate cognition, mood, personality, and physical performance, and to control the biological processes underlying normal aging. Some have suggested that such advances would take us beyond the bounds of human nature.
These trends, and these dramatic prospects, raise profound ethical questions. They have generated intense public debate and have become a central topic of discussion within practical ethics. Should we side with bioconservatives, and forgo the use of any biomedical interventions aimed at enhancing human capacities? Should we side with transhumanists and embrace the new opportunities? Or should we perhaps plot some middle course?
Human Enhancement presents the latest moves in this crucial debate: original contributions from many of the world's leading ethicists and moral thinkers, representing a wide range of perspectives, advocates and sceptics, enthusiasts and moderates. These are the arguments that will determine how humanity develops in the near future.